Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 130,764
2 South Dakota 126,561
3 Rhode Island 118,170
4 Utah 115,233
5 Arizona 111,818
6 Tennessee 110,921
7 Oklahoma 106,686
8 Iowa 106,248
9 Wisconsin 105,665
10 Arkansas 105,415
11 Nebraska 103,733
12 Kansas 101,618
13 Alabama 100,161
14 South Carolina 99,354
15 Mississippi 98,385
16 Indiana 98,382
17 Idaho 95,539
18 Nevada 95,028
19 Wyoming 93,652
20 Illinois 93,465
21 Montana 93,158
22 Louisiana 91,999
23 Georgia 91,640
24 Texas 90,816
25 Kentucky 90,793
26 California 89,951
27 Delaware 88,112
28 Florida 88,104
29 New Mexico 87,789
30 New Jersey 87,699
31 Minnesota 85,448
32 Missouri 84,043
33 Massachusetts 83,568
34 New York 83,284
35 Ohio 82,333
36 North Carolina 81,764
37 Alaska 78,922
38 Connecticut 78,299
39 Colorado 74,234
40 West Virginia 72,992
41 Pennsylvania 72,491
42 Virginia 66,894
43 Michigan 64,361
44 Maryland 62,796
45 District of Columbia 56,850
46 New Hampshire 54,841
47 Washington 44,780
48 Puerto Rico 41,717
49 Oregon 36,650
50 Maine 32,819
51 Vermont 23,782
52 Hawaii 19,243

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 385
2 Rhode Island 379
3 New York 376
4 New Jersey 369
5 Connecticut 357
6 Georgia 338
7 Kentucky 302
8 Florida 300
9 Texas 295
10 Massachusetts 263
11 Arkansas 261
12 North Carolina 261
13 Utah 245
14 Alabama 244
15 Delaware 243
16 South Dakota 237
17 Tennessee 228
18 Iowa 225
19 Virginia 223
20 New Hampshire 221
21 Louisiana 218
22 Mississippi 216
23 Pennsylvania 208
24 Ohio 200
25 Montana 198
26 Colorado 196
27 Oklahoma 194
28 Alaska 190
29 Idaho 188
30 Arizona 183
31 Nebraska 179
32 West Virginia 178
33 District of Columbia 173
34 Wyoming 173
35 New Mexico 168
36 Michigan 161
37 Nevada 161
38 California 149
39 Illinois 149
40 Wisconsin 144
41 Indiana 137
42 Maryland 137
43 North Dakota 135
44 Kansas 134
45 Minnesota 132
46 Maine 129
47 Vermont 123
48 Washington 117
49 Oregon 113
50 Missouri 108
51 Puerto Rico 37
52 Hawaii 28

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,601
2 New York 2,405
3 Rhode Island 2,356
4 Massachusetts 2,318
5 Mississippi 2,221
6 Arizona 2,173
7 Connecticut 2,135
8 South Dakota 2,116
9 Louisiana 2,056
10 Alabama 2,005
11 North Dakota 1,930
12 Pennsylvania 1,867
13 Indiana 1,855
14 Arkansas 1,788
15 Illinois 1,784
16 New Mexico 1,751
17 Iowa 1,723
18 Michigan 1,644
19 Tennessee 1,644
20 South Carolina 1,639
21 Kansas 1,621
22 Nevada 1,601
23 Georgia 1,569
24 Texas 1,495
25 Ohio 1,465
26 Delaware 1,443
27 District of Columbia 1,424
28 Florida 1,419
29 Missouri 1,361
30 California 1,300
31 Maryland 1,291
32 West Virginia 1,277
33 Montana 1,264
34 Wisconsin 1,201
35 Wyoming 1,159
36 Minnesota 1,155
37 Nebraska 1,128
38 Oklahoma 1,087
39 North Carolina 1,064
40 Kentucky 1,056
41 Colorado 1,045
42 Idaho 1,038
43 Virginia 932
44 New Hampshire 855
45 Washington 658
46 Puerto Rico 631
47 Utah 589
48 Oregon 524
49 Maine 521
50 Alaska 381
51 Vermont 325
52 Hawaii 305

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Virginia 18
2 Alabama 16
3 California 15
4 Arizona 14
5 Delaware 13
6 Georgia 10
7 Maine 10
8 Missouri 10
9 Kansas 9
10 Rhode Island 9
11 Texas 9
12 New Jersey 8
13 Oklahoma 8
14 Tennessee 8
15 Kentucky 7
16 Ohio 7
17 South Carolina 7
18 Florida 6
19 Iowa 6
20 Louisiana 6
21 Massachusetts 6
22 Mississippi 6
23 Pennsylvania 6
24 Wisconsin 6
25 Idaho 5
26 Nevada 5
27 New Mexico 5
28 New York 5
29 North Carolina 5
30 West Virginia 5
31 Wyoming 5
32 Connecticut 4
33 District of Columbia 4
34 Indiana 4
35 Maryland 4
36 Arkansas 3
37 Michigan 3
38 Oregon 3
39 Puerto Rico 3
40 South Dakota 3
41 Utah 3
42 Washington 3
43 Illinois 2
44 Montana 2
45 Nebraska 2
46 New Hampshire 2
47 Vermont 2
48 Colorado 1
49 Minnesota 1
50 North Dakota 1
51 Alaska 0
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 323,544 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 280,004 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,017 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 242,092 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 239,308 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 128,643 224 92
Richland South Carolina 98,523 1105 64
York South Carolina 93,783 1318 58
Orange California 81,982 1864 40
Pierce Washington 42,237 2901 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,108 3 99
Galax city Virginia 6,932 4 99
Foard Texas 6,926 5 99
Orange California 1,225 1936 38
Davidson Tennessee 1,223 1940 38
Richland South Carolina 1,181 1989 36
York South Carolina 1,157 2024 35
Pierce Washington 602 2697 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons